Monday, June 18, 2007

Why India can afford its villages?

Recently, I came across this interesting article by Atanu Dey on Why India cannot afford its villages. The hypothesis in this article is that the solution to India's rural problems lie in urban development. The argument is based on tracking how civilization worldwide, has had a history of urbanization and how urban centers are a cause and consequence of economic growth. The argument for rural development is also dismissed as romanticization by people who predominantly live in urban areas and don't understand the harsh realities of village life.

Ordinarily, I would have agreed with the argument completely. But I think, by going up the urbanization bandwagon blindly, we are ignoring some fundamental truths about how our society is changing -- globally.

Let me make my argumentation this way. The conventional concepts of economics that we know today have their roots in the industrial age that began in Western Europe. It is not hard to notice that the fundamental axioms of economics -- based on management of scarce resources -- reflect the fundamental challenges faced by European villages in the middle ages.

In Europe, villages, which are essentially settlements that rely primarily on agriculture, are not sustainable entities. If nothing else, nature is an adversary to be fought against. It is too cold for half of the year to even stay outdoors for long, let alone cultivate crops. So the kind of technologies, systems and supply chains that resulted from this civilization are such that they directly impact individual survivability.

On the other hand, if you were to ask me, what have been the major challenges faced by villages in India, I would use terms like saturation or stagnation. The tropical climate in which India (and most other third world countries) are based in, did not pose any significant problems for survivability on an individual scale.

Villages had to contend with adversarial challenges like wild animals, which they were able to do with far lesser amount of technology than their counterparts in the West, who had to contend with adversarial conditions on a much larger scale. In fact, dealing with wild animals is more of a management problem than a struggle against an adversary. Our culture abounds with norms and techniques for living in harmony with nature. Nature is very rarely seen as an adversary, against whom we have to be eternally vigilant about.

Not surprisingly, the major challenges faced by villages in India are societal in nature. They stem from stagnation of thought processes (what is called the local minima problem in artificial intelligence) or from saturation (perceived abundance leading to a spurt in population, tragedy of the commons, etc).

It is not surprising then that so many thinkers in our history have expounded the virtues of liberation of thought and of welcoming new ideas from everywhere and of treating guests as gods, and so on.

When Ambedkar urged his followers to shun rural persecution and move to urban centers, what it meant in effect was to escape from the local minimum of rural social connections and find a better optimality for their lives through other connections that are more likely in urban centers.

So there is a fundamental difference between urbanization in the West and in India. In the West, urban centers offered greater chances of material resources for survival; while in India, urban centers offered greater opportunities for breaking out of social stagnations.

While on the one hand, villagers migrate to urban centers to escape social ostracisms, the other reason for migration has been in search of things like fame, glamour, etc. In other words, social standing, not survival.

The problem of stagnation however, is being addressed today in a subtle fashion, by very different means -- in the form of satellite television, internet, mobile phones, etc. The very worldview of people, be they urbanites or villagers, are influenced to the same extent by these devices.

On a corresponding note, the resource requirements of urban centers are so high that it is unlikely that the world can sustain more than a few tens of mega urban centers. Much of urbanization as we know today is based on a reliance on fossil fuels to such an extent that the problem of them getting exhausted is very real.

On the other hand, technologies that are based on renewable energies like solar power or wind, are not powerful enough to sustain large urban centers. We cannot hope to power a city like Mumbai using just wind farms, and neither can we hope to convert all automobiles of Mumbai to solar powered vehicles.

But these technologies are more than suitable for small villages and towns! It is very plausible to think about even a mid-sized town like Kanakapura to be powered entirely by renewable energy sources, their water supply to be met primarily by rain-water harvesting and their internal transportation to be based primarily on solar vehicles. Connect several such towns with conventional technologies like roads and trains, and connect them all to the internet and television; they'll figure out how to do business by themselves.

On a related note, foundations like Navadarshanam, are very interesting. Navadarshanam is a foundation that runs on sustainable technologies. They generate their own electricity, their own fuel to run (suitably modified) diesel generators, etc. And yet, they don't exactly live in the stone ages. They are connected to the Internet, they have a good library, and conduct business with the external world by making and selling health foods and renting out space in the foundation for visitors. (Note: I am not affiliated to this foundation in any way, so this link is not nepotistic).

A village in a tropical environ like in most of India, is very much sustainable if it is made of people having the same levels of education and exposure that is found in major urban centers worldwide. And with today's technologies, it is possible to provide such an education and exposure, without having to uproot oneself and move to urban centers.

8 comments:

poorna said...

Extremely interesting article. The concept that india didnt move forward in terms of technology as fast as europe did simply because conditions were conducive to life is something i've thought about a lot too.

However the current problem i think is different. Because of these conducive conditions, the agriculture sector in india never went through the kind of consolidation that it did in the west. Add to this the rising expenses, due to the urban centres and globalisation. Our farmers therefore find themselves in a condition today where they find it hard to lead a normal life.

With this in mind i think that the indian villages are going to struggle if some consolidation doesnt happen in agriculture.

poorna said...

Extremely interesting article. The concept that india didnt move forward in terms of technology as fast as europe did simply because conditions were conducive to life is something i've thought about a lot too.

However the current problem i think is different. Because of these conducive conditions, the agriculture sector in india never went through the kind of consolidation that it did in the west. Add to this the rising expenses, due to the urban centres and globalisation. Our farmers therefore find themselves in a condition today where they find it hard to lead a normal life.

With this in mind i think that the indian villages are going to struggle if some consolidation doesnt happen in agriculture.

P2C2U said...

Before I started reading your post, I read the article you'd referred to. I found myself agreeing completely with the author of that. But after reading your post, I find that you make just as much sense to me as he did!

While I do think that urbanisation is a necessary side effect of development, I believe that villages can be made sustainable in our modernizing economy, just like you mentioned.

One reason why Indian villages are not keeping up in terms of development is of course lopsided resource management, arising not just from political and bureaucratic inefficiencies, but also from caste divisions.

I enjoyed reading this post. It's refreshing to read something informative and analytical like this, once in a while.

sri said...

Thanks for your comments..

Over the years, I'm increasingly getting convinced that there is something called an "Indian context" after all.. Something which requires a fundamentally different (different from the western perspective) way of looking at things and solving problems.

While I have enormous respect for the way the Western civilization developed, surmounting one adversarial hurdle after another, I think it would be foolish on our part to simply copy their results without enough first-principles analyses of our own.

Ambar said...

[i]A village in a tropical environ like in most of India, is very much sustainable if it is made of people having the same levels of education and exposure that is found in major urban centers worldwide. And with today's technologies, it is possible to provide such an education and exposure, without having to uproot oneself and move to urban centers.[/i]

Plausible. However, the much more fundamental, and non-trivial issue to me seems to be one of transport of material resources. A village may generate its own power, but something as small as a piece of insulated wire will have to be transported in. And this would increase the cost of the wire in the village compared to a city/town, thanks to the sheer difference in scale.

[i]On a corresponding note, the resource requirements of urban centers...........energies like solar power or wind, are not powerful enough to sustain large urban centers.[/i]

I'm not sure I understand. It boils down to per-capita requirements/consumption of power. Where one would put up, say 100 windmills to power a village of 1,000, one just puts up 100,000 windmills together to power a town of a million. There are issues with alternative energy sources, and solving them will make it feasible to use them in both urban and rural setups.

Also, regarding the higher power consumption in urban areas, I think it's due to the fact that power is more available in these areas than villages that urban residents tend to consume a lot more power. When one lives in a village which gets power 12-16 hours a day, and that too, of a bad quality, one tends not to rely on it too much :-)

sri said...

Sure, logistics involving material resources is one of the primary reasons why populations aggregated in urban centers. But the main point here is that the problem is not that acute in India like it was in Europe.

For instance, one of the main reasons for the formation of multi-storeyed apartments in Europe was the heating issue. It is far cheaper to provide a centralized heating solution to a large set of houses, than individually heat several houses.

We don't have such problems here. One may argue that we have problems of air conditioning. However, with enough forest cover, air conditioning is not really as much of a necessity for survival, as heating is in the West. Also centralized solutions work when heat is to be provided, but are not that effective when heat is to be removed and fresh air needs to be circulated.

And yes, it is not that using wind farms for villages is an obvious solution. We need R&D in these directions -- without enough first-principles thinking, we can never hope to provide a solution.

For the specific case of Kanakapura, which is a township that is surrounded by high hills, it is easier to answer where the windmills ought to be located.

Also, just because we are using renewable energy does not mean that we throw away conventional technologies. We do need good roads, railways, etc. for conventional logistics.

And, I don't agree that resource consumption in cities is more simply because there are more resources over there. The amount of resources required for performing simple activities like daily commute to work is much more in cities than small towns simply because of their size.

Devdas said...

Urban centers work well because of economies of scale. The long tail of choice which exists in urban areas does not exist in rural ones.

The US is far more "de-urbanised" than Europe, and it reflects in their per capita energy consumption and lifestyle. To be able to run infrastructure properly, you need a sustainable population which uses it. This includes trains and buses, which simply do not scale downwards.

Ambar, the problem with putting up 100000 windmills is that windmills do not provide reliable power (and storing it requires some form of chemical transformation with the additional problems of storage), and they need space to be installed.

Nuclear power is far cheaper in the urban context. The cost of incremental infrastructure is always lower than the cost of basic infrastructure. The cost of land is fixed, and the cost of building a second storey over the first is just the cost of materials + labour. High initial fixed costs, and lower operational costs work better in urban centres.

Let me point out that urban growth in Europe happened after the industrial revolution, when people were able to move off the land (or were forced to) and specialised in industrial production. The net output of a team of specialists working together is always going to be higher than the output of individual craftsmen (consider the costs of learning multiple skills, and task switching). Refer to Adam Smith for the details.

I suspect that if you were to look at the per capita costs involved for sustaining villages as well, the picture would look grossly different.

sri said...

Agreed. But the fact also remains that urban centers are so resource hungry, that it may not be possible to support many mega cities (at least with today's technologies).

Just like we have not perfected sustainable technologies like wind farms, we have also not perfected nuclear energy. Nuclear waste is a major headache worldwide.

Besides, economies of scale is crucial when the economy is dependent on manufacturing. And economies are are likely to favour manufacturing especially when natural resources are scarce.

In tropical environments, where natural resources abound and can be replenished, it is quite unlikely that the entire population would be motivated enough to congregate in urban centers. Social pressures are far less of a motivating factor than ubiquitous survival crises on an individual scale.

Also per-capita consumption depends to a large part on the life style of the population. I'm sure that villages with similar demographics and similar development indices (literacy rate, age expectency, etc.) between the US and India would have vastly different per-capita resource consumption figures.